Analysis of human mobility and epidemiological data by a global consortium of researchers shows that human mobility was predictive of the spread of the epidemic in China. Restrictions of travel from Wuhan unfortunately came too late and research showed that the impact of travel restrictions declines as the epidemic grows. Provinces outside Hubei that acted early to test, track and contain imported COVID-19 cases fared the best at preventing or containing local outbreaks.
Mobile geolocation data combined with a rich epidemiological dataset from the Open COVID-19 Data Working Group, showed that local person-to-person transmission happened extensively early on in the coronavirus outbreak and was mitigated by drastic control measures. However, with an average incubation period of 5 days, and up to 14 days in some cases, these mobility restrictions did not begin to positively impact the data on new cases for over a week - with things appearing to get worse in the 5-7 days immediately after the lockdown as local transmission was well under way.
Among cases reported outside Hubei, 515 cases had a known travel history to Wuhan and a symptom onset date before 31st January 2020, compared with only 39 after 31st January, illustrating the effect of travel restrictions in decreasing the spread to other Chinese provinces.
"Our findings show that early in the coronavirus outbreak travel restrictions were effective in preventing the import of infections from a known source," said the author. "However, once COVID-19 cases begin spreading locally the contribution of new importations was much smaller. This is where a full package of measures including local mobility restrictions, testing, tracing and isolation need to work together to mitigate the epidemic. Chinese provinces and other countries that have successfully halted internal transmission of COVID-19 need to consider carefully how they will manage reinstating travel and mobility to avoid the reintroduction and spread of the disease in their populations."
The senior author adds, "The political will in many countries is lagging behind the spread of COVID-19. Travel and mobility restrictions are the most useful right at the start, when local transmission has not yet become a factor. After transmission is established, physical distancing and the quarantine of sick individuals will work, but it takes time. "
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/25/science.abb4218
http://sciencemission.com/site/index.php?page=news&type=view&id=publications%2Fthe-effect-of-human&filter=22
Travel restrictions are most useful in the early and late phase of COVID-19 epidemic
- 1,052 views
- Added
Edited
Latest News
Metabolic rewiring promotes…
By newseditor
Posted 18 Apr
A drug to prevent flu-induc…
By newseditor
Posted 18 Apr
New origin of deep brain waves
By newseditor
Posted 17 Apr
Starving cells hijack prote…
By newseditor
Posted 17 Apr
Miniature battery-free epid…
By newseditor
Posted 17 Apr
Other Top Stories
Signaling pathway in symmetric cell division of cancer stem cells i…
Read more
New 3D imaging technique reveals how pancreatic cancers start
Read more
Role of myosin II in hijacking the immune system and spread of skin…
Read more
Linking bacteria to lung cancer!
Read more
A serine-threonine kinase regulates the skin cancer!
Read more
Protocols
MemPrep, a new technology f…
By newseditor
Posted 08 Apr
A tangible method to assess…
By newseditor
Posted 08 Apr
Stem cell-derived vessels-o…
By newseditor
Posted 06 Apr
Single-cell biclustering fo…
By newseditor
Posted 01 Apr
Modular dual-color BiAD sen…
By newseditor
Posted 31 Mar
Publications
How does the microbiota con…
By newseditor
Posted 18 Apr
The integrated stress respo…
By newseditor
Posted 18 Apr
The immunobiology of herpes…
By newseditor
Posted 17 Apr
Circulating microbiome DNA…
By newseditor
Posted 17 Apr
Spindle oscillations in com…
By newseditor
Posted 17 Apr
Presentations
Hydrogels in Drug Delivery
By newseditor
Posted 12 Apr
Lipids
By newseditor
Posted 31 Dec
Cell biology of carbohydrat…
By newseditor
Posted 29 Nov
RNA interference (RNAi)
By newseditor
Posted 23 Oct
RNA structure and functions
By newseditor
Posted 19 Oct
Posters
A chemical biology/modular…
By newseditor
Posted 22 Aug
Single-molecule covalent ma…
By newseditor
Posted 04 Jul
ASCO-2020-HEALTH SERVICES R…
By newseditor
Posted 23 Mar
ASCO-2020-HEAD AND NECK CANCER
By newseditor
Posted 23 Mar
ASCO-2020-GENITOURINARY CAN…
By newseditor
Posted 23 Mar